Theoretical Ecology, Biodiversity Patterns, Biodiversity Finance, Complex Systems
Interests
Ecology cannot be a science without a consistent theoretical underpinning of the concepts and ideas employed. Unfortunately, insufficient efforts are made to develop such a theoretical basis of ecology, perpetuating confusion. My research aims to overcome this barrier to progress in ecological research by (1) developing a "zoo" of different ecological models that can consistently be derived from each other, usually through appropriate approximations, (2) describing the solutions of these models, so often solving decades old ecological problems, and (3) verifying these solutions by comparison with the rich fundus of ecological observations in the literature. The resulting abstract but general understanding of ecology allows me to address high-level applied problems, such as in biodiversity finance, and led to our proposal for Biodiversity Impact Credits that can play a similar role for species conservation as carbon credits do for climate protection.
Interview conducted and presented by our former BSc student Jasmine Pilgir in 2023.
Publications
Publications of specific relevance to the Centre for Biodiversity and Sustainability
2025
Plasticity in climate change responses Stollewerk A Kratina P Sentis A Chaparro‐Pedraza C Decaestecker E De Meester L Eyice O Govaert L et al. Biological Reviews, Wiley vol. 100 (6), 2508-2527.
Slower but deeper community change: Intrinsic dynamics regulate anthropogenic impacts on species temporal turnover Terry JCD Rossberg AG Ecology, Wiley vol. 105 (11), e4430-e4430.
A metric for tradable biodiversity credits quantifying impacts on global extinction risk Rossberg AG O'Sullivan JD Malysheva S Journal of Industrial Ecology, Springer Nature vol. 28 (4), 1009-1021.
An efficient tool to find multispecies MSY for interacting fish stocks Del Santo O’Neill TJ Rossberg AG Thorpe RB Fish and Fisheries, Wiley vol. 25 (3), 441-454.
Steeper size spectra with decreasing phytoplankton biomass indicate strong trophic amplification and future fish declines Atkinson A Rossberg AG Gaedke U Sprules G Heneghan RF Batziakas S Grigoratou M Schmidt K Nature Communications, Springer Nature vol. 15 (1)
Self-organization of ecosystems to exclude half of all potential invaders Cockrell C O'Sullivan JD Terry JCD Nwankwo EC Physical Review Research, American Physical Society (Aps) vol. 6 (1)
Schrödinger's Range-Shifting Cat: How Skewed Temperature Dependence Impacts Persistence with Climate Change. Terry JCD O'Sullivan JD The American Naturalist, University of Chicago Press vol. 203 (2), 161-173.
Temporally robust occupancy frequency distributions in riverine metacommunities explained by local biodiversity regulation O'Sullivan JD Terry JCD Global Ecology and Biogeography, Wiley vol. 32 (12), 2230-2243.
Community composition exceeds area as a predictor of long-term conservation value O’Sullivan JD Christopher J Wilson R Plos Computational Biology, Public Library of Science vol. 19 (1)
Synthesising the multiple impacts of climatic variability on community responses to climate change Terry JCD O'Sullivan JD Ecography: Pattern and Diversity in Ecology, Wiley Open Access
Sustainable fishing can lead to improvements in marine ecosystem status: an ensemble-model forecast of the North Sea ecosystem Spence MA Griffiths CA Waggitt JJ Thorpe RB Marine Ecology: Progress Series, Inter Research
A metric for tradable biodiversity credits linked to the Living Planet Index and global species conservation Rossberg AG O'Sullivan JD Malysheva S Shnerb NM In Arxiv
Intrinsic ecological dynamics drive biodiversity turnover in model metacommunities O'Sullivan J Terry C Rossberg A Nature Communications, Nature Research (Part of Springer Nature)
Dome patterns in pelagic size spectra reveal strong trophic cascades. Rossberg AG Gaedke U Nature Communications, Nature Research (Part of Springer Nature) vol. 10 (1), 4396-4396.
A general framework for combining ecosystem models Spence M Blanchard J ROSSBERG AG Heath M Heymans J Serpetti N Speirs D Thorpe R Fish and Fisheries, Wiley
Structural Instability of Food Webs and Food-Web Models and Their Implications for Management Rossberg AG Caskenette AL Bersier L-F In Adaptive Food Webs, Cambridge University Press (Cup) 372-383.
What can indicators of good environmental status tell us about ecosystem services?: Reducing efforts and increasing cost-effectiveness by reapplying biodiversity indicator data Broszeit S Beaumont NJ Uyarra MC Heiskanen AS Frost M Somerfield PJ Ecological Indicators vol. 81, 409-442.
Towards ecosystem-based management: identifying operational food-web indicators for marine ecosystems Tam JC Link JS Rossberg AG Rogers SI Levin PS Rochet M-J Bundy A Belgrano A et al. ICES Journal of Marine Science. vol. 74 (7), 2040-2052.
Uses of Innovative Modeling Tools within the Implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive Lynam CP Uusitalo L Patrício J Piroddi C Queirós AM Teixeira H Rossberg AG Hyder K et al. Frontiers in Marine Science, Frontiers vol. 3
Biodiversity in Marine Ecosystems—European Developments toward Robust Assessments Heiskanen A-S Berg T Uusitalo L Teixeira H Bruhn A Lynam CP Rossberg AG Korpinen S Frontiers in Marine Science, Frontiers vol. 3
Quantitative criteria for choosing targets and indicators for sustainable use of ecosystems Rossberg AG Uusitalo L Berg T Zaiko A Chenuil A Uyarra MC Lynam CP Ecological Indicators vol. 72, 215-224.
Maximum sustainable yield from interacting fish stocks in an uncertain world: two policy choices and underlying trade-offs Farcas A Rossberg AG Ices Journal of Marine Science: Journal Du Conseil, Oxford University Press (OUP): Policy B - Oxford Open Option A
Contrasting changes in the abundance and diversity of North American bird assemblages from 1971 to 2010 Schipper AM Belmaker J de Miranda MD Navarro LM Böhning‐Gaese K Costello MJ Dornelas M Foppen R et al. Global Change Biology, Wiley vol. 22 (12), 3948-3959.
Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management Hyder K Rossberg AG Allen JI Austen MC Barciela RM Bannister HJ Blackwell PG Blanchard JL et al. Marine Policy, Elsevier vol. 61, 291-302.
Using ecological models to assess ecosystem status in support of the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive Piroddi C Teixeira H Lynam CP Smith C Alvarez MC Mazik K Andonegi E Churilova T et al. Ecological Indicators, Elsevier vol. 58, 175-191.
Selection on stability across ecological scales Borrelli JJ Allesina S Arditi R Chase I Damuth J Holt RD Novak M Rohr RP et al. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Elsevier vol. 30 (7), 417-425.
Impact of biodiversity loss on production in complex marine food webs mitigated by prey-release. Fung T Reid DG Rossberg AG Nat Commun vol. 6, 6657-6657.
Constructing random matrices to represent real ecosystems. James A Plank MJ Rossberg AG Beecham J The American Naturalist, University of Chicago Press vol. 185 (5), 680-692.
Maximum sustainable yield from interacting fish stocks in an uncertain world: two policy choices and underlying trade-offs Farcas A Rossberg AG In Arxiv
Current noise-removal methods can create false signals in ecogenomic data Rossberg AG Rogers T Proceedings of The Royal Society B, The Royal Society vol. 281 (1783)
Stock–recruitment relations controlled by feeding interactions alone Rossberg AG Houle JE Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Canadian Science Publishing vol. 70 (10), 1447-1455.
Why the size structure of marine communities can require decades to recover from fishing Fung T Farnsworth K Shephard S Rossberg A Marine Ecology Progress Series, Inter-Research Science Center vol. 484, 155-171.
Food web indicators under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive: From complexity to simplicity? Rombouts I Beaugrand G Fizzala X Gaill F Greenstreet SPR Lamare S Le Loc’h F Mialet B et al. Ecological Indicators, Elsevier vol. 29, 246-254.
A generalized functional response for predators that switch between multiple prey species van Leeuwen E Brännström Å Jansen VAA Journal of Theoretical Biology, Elsevier vol. 328, 89-98.
Modelling recovery of Celtic Sea demersal fish community size-structure Shephard S Fung T Rossberg AG Farnsworth KD Warnes S Fisheries Research, Elsevier vol. 140, 91-95.
Demersal fish biodiversity: species-level indicators and trends-based targets for the Marine Strategy Framework Directive Greenstreet SPR Rossberg AG Fox CJ Blasdale T Boulcott P Mitchell I Ices Journal of Marine Science, Oxford University Press (OUP) vol. 69 (10), 1789-1801.
Assessing the sensitivity and specificity of fish community indicators to management action Houle JE Farnsworth KD Rossberg AG Reid DG Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Canadian Science Publishing vol. 69 (6), 1065-1079.
Phylogeny versus body size as determinants of food web structure Naisbit RE Rohr RP Rossberg AG Proceedings of The Royal Society B, The Royal Society vol. 279 (1741), 3291-3297.
Determining trophic niche width: an experimental test of the stable isotope approach Fink P Reichwaldt ES Harrod C Rossberg AG Oikos, Wiley vol. 121 (12), 1985-1994.
Size-selective fishing drives species composition in the Celtic Sea Shephard S Fung T Houle JE Farnsworth KD Ices Journal of Marine Science, Oxford University Press (OUP) vol. 69 (2), 223-234.
Recent data suggest no further recovery in North Sea Large Fish Indicator Fung T Farnsworth KD Reid DG Ices Journal of Marine Science, Oxford University Press (OUP) vol. 69 (2), 235-239.
Distributional (In)Congruence of Biodiversity-Ecosystem Functioning Mulder C Boit A Mori S Vonk JA Dyer SD Faggiano L Geisen S González AL et al. vol. 46, 1-88.
1 Distributional (In)Congruence of Biodiversity–Ecosystem Functioning Mulder C Boit A Mori S Vonk JA Dyer SD Faggiano L Geisen S Lavorel S et al. In Global Change in Multispecies Systems Part 1, Elsevier 1-88.
6 A Complete Analytic Theory for Structure and Dynamics of Populations and Communities Spanning Wide Ranges in Body Size Rossberg AG In Global Change in Multispecies Systems Part 1, Elsevier 427-521.
Rigorous conditions for food-web intervality in high-dimensional trophic niche spaces Brännström Å Carlsson L Journal of Mathematical Biology, Springer Nature vol. 63 (3), 575-592.
Universal power-law diet partitioning by marine fish and squid with surprising stability–diversity implications Rossberg AG Farnsworth KD Proceedings of The Royal Society B, The Royal Society vol. 278 (1712), 1617-1625.
Simplification of structured population dynamics in complex ecological communities Rossberg AG Theoretical Ecology, Springer Nature vol. 4 (4), 449-465.
Food-web structure in low- and high-dimensional trophic niche spaces Rossberg AG Brännström Å Journal of The Royal Society Interface, The Royal Society vol. 7 (53), 1735-1743.
Soil resource supply influences faunal size-specific distributions in natural food webs. Mulder C Den Hollander HA Vonk JA Rossberg AG Naturwissenschaften vol. 96 (7), 813-826.
Corrigendum to “Food webs: Experts consuming families of experts” [J. Theor. Biol. 241 (2006) 552–563] Rossberg AG Matsuda H Amemiya T Journal of Theoretical Biology, Elsevier vol. 258 (2)
Electroconvection in a Homeotropic Bent-Rod Nematic Liquid Crystal Beyond the Dielectric Inversion Frequency Kumar P Hiremath US Yelamaggad CV The Journal of Physical Chemistry B, American Chemical Society (Acs) vol. 112 (32), 9753-9760.
Drifting Periodic Structures in a Degenerate-Planar Bent-Rod Nematic Liquid Crystal Beyond the Dielectric Inversion Frequency Kumar P Hiremath US Yelamaggad CV The Journal of Physical Chemistry B, American Chemical Society (Acs) vol. 112 (31), 9270-9274.
Laplace Transforms of Probability Distributions and Their Inversions are Easy on Logarithmic Scales Rossberg AG Journal of Applied Probability, Cambridge University Press (Cup) vol. 45 (2), 531-541.
Part–whole relations between food webs and the validity of local food-web descriptions Rossberg AG Ecological Complexity, Elsevier vol. 5 (2), 121-131.
Computer simulations of seasonal outbreak and diurnal vertical migration of cyanobacteria Serizawa H Amemiya T Rossberg AG Limnology, Springer Nature vol. 9 (3), 185-194.
Mathematical modeling of colony formation in algal blooms: phenotypic plasticity in cyanobacteria Serizawa H Amemiya T Enomoto T Rossberg AG Ecological Research, Wiley vol. 23 (5), 841-850.
Stability and dynamical behavior in a lake-model and implications for regime shifts in real lakes Amemiya T Enomoto T Rossberg AG Yamamoto T Ecological Modelling, Elsevier vol. 206 (1-2), 54-62.
Estimating trophic link density from quantitative but incomplete diet data Rossberg AG Yanagi K Amemiya T Journal of Theoretical Biology, Elsevier vol. 243 (2), 261-272.
Observation of stable phase jump lines in convection of a twisted nematic liquid crystal Tatsumi S Rossberg AG Physical Review E, American Physical Society (Aps) vol. 73 (1)
A guideline for ecological risk management procedures Rossberg AG Matsuda H Koike F Amemiya T Makino M Morino M Shimode S Urano K Landscape and Ecological Engineering, Springer Nature vol. 1 (2), 221-228.
Some properties of the speciation model for food-web structure—Mechanisms for degree distributions and intervality Rossberg AG Amemiya T Itoh K Journal of Theoretical Biology, Elsevier vol. 238 (2), 401-415.
Some Properties of the Speciation Model for Food-Web Structure - Mechanisms for Degree Distributions and Intervality Rossberg AG Matsuda H Amemiya T Itoh K In Arxiv
Lake Restoration in Terms of Ecological Resilience: a Numerical Study of Biomanipulations under Bistable Conditions Amemiya T Enomoto T Rossberg A Takamura N Ecology and Society, Resilience Alliance vol. 10 (2)
A Frequency Measure Robust to Linear Filtering Rossberg AG Progress of Theoretical and Experimental Physics, Oxford University Press (OUP) vol. 112 (6), 907-919.
Diagnosis in flow: Diagnostic functionalities for vortex flowmeters Herwig J Riegler P Friedrichs R Rossberg AG Vdi Berichte (1829), 777-920. 06-10-2004
12aTC-4 食物網進化のモデル(生態系・ゲーム等, 領域 11) Rossberg AG 隆 雨 公紀 伊
ON THE LIMITS OF SPECTRAL METHODS FOR FREQUENCY ESTIMATION ROSSBERG AG International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, World Scientific Publishing vol. 14 (06), 2115-2123.
Detection of improper installation from the sensor signal of vortex flowmeters Rossberg AG Riegler P Buhl F Flow Measurement and Instrumentation. vol. 15 (1), 29-35.
Data-driven optimal filtering for phase and frequency of noisy oscillations: Application to vortex flow metering Rossberg AG Bartholomé K Timmer J Physical Review E, American Physical Society (Aps) vol. 69 (1)
Detection of improper installation from the sensor signal of vortex flowmeters Rossberg AG Riegler P Buhl F Flow Measurement and Instrumentation vol. 15 (1), 29-35.
Data-driven optimal filtering for phase and frequency of noisy oscillations: Application to vortex flow metering Rossberg AG Bartholomé K Physical Review E Statistical Nonlinear and Soft Matter Physics vol. 69 (1 2), 162161-1621611. 01-01-2004
2003
A generic scheme for choosing models and characterizations of complex systems Rossberg AG In Arxiv
Data driven optimal filtering for phase and frequency of noisy oscillations: application to vortex flowmetering Rossberg AG Bartholome K Timmer J In Arxiv
Magnetic field effect on the thresholds of a sequence of transitions in the electroconvection of a homeotropic nematic liquid crystal Éber N Németh S Rossberg AG Kramer L Physical Review E, American Physical Society (Aps) vol. 66 (3)
Three-dimensional pattern formation, multiple homogeneous soft modes, and nonlinear dielectric electroconvection Rossberg AG Physical Review E, American Physical Society (Aps) vol. 62 (6), 8114-8132.
New Scenarios in the Electroconvection of a Homeotropic Nematic Liquid Crystal Éber N Rossberg A Kramer L Molecular Crystals and Liquid Crystals Science and Technology Section A Molecular Crystals and Liquid Crystals. vol. 351 (1), 161-168.
Pattern formation of chevrons in the conduction regime in homeotropically aligned liquid crystals Huh J-H Hidaka Y Rossberg AG Physical Review E, American Physical Society (Aps) vol. 61 (3), 2769-2776.
Abnormal rolls and regular arrays of disclinations in homeotropic electroconvection Rossberg AG Éber N Kramer L Physical Review E, American Physical Society (Aps) vol. 61 (1), r25-r28.
Optical characterization of chevron texture formation in nematic electroconvection Amm H Stannarius R Physica D Nonlinear Phenomena, Elsevier vol. 126 (3-4), 171-188.
New Symmetry Breaking in Nonlinear Electroconvection of Nematic Liquid Crystals Plaut E Decker W Kramer L Pesch W Belaidi A Physical Review Letters, American Physical Society (Aps) vol. 79 (12), 2367-2370.
Weakly Nonlinear Theory of Pattern-Forming Systems with Spontaneously Broken Isotropy Rossberg AG Hertrich A Kramer L Physical Review Letters, American Physical Society (Aps) vol. 76 (25), 4729-4732.
Weakly nonlinear theory of electroconvection in homeotropically oriented nematic liquid crystals Rossberg AG Kramer L Physica Scripta, Iop Publishing vol. T67, 121-124.
Traveling wave instability in sustained double-diffusive convection Predtechensky AA McCormick WD Swift JB Rossberg AG Physics of Fluids, Aip Publishing vol. 6 (12), 3923-3935.
Isotope analysis of birds’ eye lens provides early-life information Hasegawa EA Matsubayashi J Tayasu I Goto T Inoue H Rossberg AG Yoshimizu C Hasegawa M et al. In Biorxiv
Assessing the suitability of diversity metrics to detect biodiversity change Santini L Belmaker J Costello MJ Pereira HM ROSSBERG AG Schipper AM Ceaușu S Dornelas M et al. Biological Conservation
Let's train more theoretical ecologists - here is why Rossberg AG Barabás G Possingham HP Pascual M Marquet PA Hui C Evans MR Meszéna G Trends in Ecology and Evolution, Elsevier
Schrödinger’s range-shifting cat: analytic predictions for the effect of asymmetric environmental performance on climate change responses Terry JCD O’Sullivan JD In Biorxiv
Temporally robust occupancy frequency distributions in riverine metacommunities explained by local biodiversity regulation O’Sullivan JD Rossberg AG In Biorxiv
Slower, but deeper community change: anthropogenic impacts on species temporal turnover are regulated by intrinsic dynamics Terry JCD Rossberg AG In Biorxiv
ARIA Landscape Engineering for Biodiveristy Resilience Applications Axel Rossberg £16,202 ARIA Advanced Research and Invention Agency 06-10-2025 - 05-01-2026
Towards multispecies fisheries management Axel Rossberg £68,437 Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA) 01-01-2024 - 31-03-2025
Mediating the first transaction of Biodiversity Impact Credits Axel Rossberg and Andrew Leitch £198,029 NERC Natural Environment Research Council 03-01-2023 - 30-06-2024
Bioacoustic monitoring using drones Lin Wang and Axel Rossberg £46,821 EPSRC Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council 01-04-2022 - 31-07-2023
Catalysing the emergence of a biodiversity stewardship credit market Axel Rossberg £60,891 NERC Natural Environment Research Council 01-02-2022 - 30-09-2022
Mechanisms and prediction of large scale ecological responses to environmental change Axel Rossberg and Kostya Trachenko £1,213,084 NERC Natural Environment Research Council 06-01-2020 - 04-04-2025
LIDO PhD studentship - CASE Award : Thomas Del Santo O'Neill Axel Rossberg £5,600 CEFAS Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science 01-09-2019 - 31-08-2023
Research Group
PhD Students
Dominik Maczik Evaluating Biodiversity Credits: a Dual Approach Combining Metacommunity Modelling and Strategic Application Analysis
Sara Shahin Unified Spatio-Temporal Biodiversity Modelling
The Centre for Biodiversity and Sustainability recently uncovered a global ecological paradox.
While it is widely expected that accelerating climate change will speed up nature's pace—forcing species to replace each other more rapidly—we found the exact opposite. By analyzing a century of data across marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ... [more]
Publications of specific relevance to the Centre for Biodiversity and Sustainability
Plasticity in climate change responses